What happened?
On 9 November, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki accused the Kremlin of orchestrating the migrant crisis at the border. He said: "This is the latest attack of Lukashenko, who is an executor, but has an enabler, and this enabler is in Moscow, this enabler is President Putin."

On 11 November, in an emergency meeting with top ministers, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko extended a threat, saying: "We heat Europe, and they are still threatening us that they'll shut the borders. And what if we cut off (the transit of) natural gas to them? So I would recommend that the leadership of Poland, Lithuanian and other brainless people to think before they speak." On 13 November, Russian President Vladimir Putin disapproved of the threat. He said: "This would be a violation of our transit contract and I hope it will not come to that."

What is the background?   
First, Poland's complaints and threats. Poland, taking a strong stand, declared a state of emergency along its borders with Belarus. This enables them to push back migrants, ignore asylum requests, as well as deny access to NGOs and journalists. They believe militarizing the borders will force Belarus to stop the migrant inflow. The government intends to single-handedly manage the crisis and has repeatedly refused the EU's assistance. Although eclipsed by the ongoing crisis, the bloc's internal differences with Poland on the rule of law can be attributed to this refusal.
    
Second, the EU's options and strategies. The EU regards the border standoff as a 'hybrid attack'. Refuting assumptions of Belarus not being affected by sanctions, the European Commission spokesperson Peter Stano claimed Lukashenko had retorted to "(behaving) like a gangster regime," as sanctions were "biting". Economic sanctions remain the primary retaliatory measure under consideration. An 'extended sanctions regime', building on the earlier four rounds, is predicted to affect 30 individuals and entities along with Belarus' national carrier Belavia. Besides, third-country airlines and those beyond the regime may also be targeted.
  
Third, Belarus' threat and counterthreat. Lukashenko, as a retaliatory measure to the sanctions, had warned of "drowning" the bloc in "migrants and drugs". The latest threat of cutting gas transit to the EU, though empty-sounding, has fallen right into the laps of all the Nord Stream 2 critics. Belarus continues washing its hands off the blame and accuses the EU and Poland of being the real culprits since they refuse to aid the asylum-seekers. The crisis also created a diversion by overshadowing Belarus' growing human rights violations.

Fourth, the Russia factor. Alleging Russian involvement, Morawiecki accused the Kremlin of "rebuilding the Russian empire" by using "a new kind of war" whose "ammunition is civilians". Against this backdrop, German Chancellor Angela Merkel conversed with Russian President Vladimir Putin via telephone, asking him to resolve the ongoing conflict. However, Putin strategically refused this request and suggested such negotiations to be done directly with Minsk. If the EU heeds to this, it would imply legitimizing Lukashenko's illegitimate regime. Notwithstanding the allegations, Russia does not seem to have manoeuvred the crisis, although it has definitely capitalized on it.

Fifth, the humanitarian crisis. The political crises apart, the humanitarian one is of the utmost consequence. With winter approaching, migrants are struggling; nine deaths have been reported so far. Betraying their trust by giving them false hope of a 'promised land' and leaving them to die, all to prove a point, is simply cruel. To be used and abused for political gain will scar the already uncertain migrant lives.  

What does this mean?
First, a shrewd Belarus. Cashing in on the bloc's evidently vulnerable migrant policy, Belarus has created absolute chaos. Lukashenko has managed to play it nasty and sly at the cost of innocent migrant lives. 

Second, the EU at an impasse. The EU is at a crossroads where both action and inaction seem troublesome. Considering further sanctions when the genesis of the present crisis was rooted in them, might prove detrimental for the EU, especially when it still lacks an efficient migrant policy. This may be a war that cannot be won, yet the EU cannot afford to lose.